Later that day: Noem, less coy on the Senate

This morning, Rep. Kristi Noem told reporters she hasn’t “spent a lot of time thinking about a timetable” for making a decision about running for Senate and would “deal with politics a little bit later.”

Apparently “a little bit later” meant “that afternoon.”

A few hours after her morning interview, Noem told The Hill that she is “watching the (Senate) race,” has “had some conversations with organizations” about a Senate run. She even gave a timetable: 

“We haven’t made up our minds on what we’re going to do at all, and probably won’t for several months yet,” Noem said.

UPDATE: I’m told Noem’s comments to The Hill were actually made Wednesday, though the article was published today.

Read the new, more forthright comments from Noem here.

Rep. Kristi Noem still coy on Senate

Rep. Kristi Noem had some news to share.

“I also wanted to make an announcement about something new today I’m going to be doing,” Noem told reporters dialed in to her weekly conference call with the South Dakota media.

But the announcement was that she would be holding an ag-focused conference call with South Dakota citizens next week (at the ungodly hour of 6 a.m.).

The announcement a lot of people are waiting for Noem to make — whether she will run for U.S. Senate — will have to wait for another day.

“I’m still focused on doing the job I was elected to do,” Noem said when asked about the Senate. “With the farm bill going on right now I’m focused on that. So we’ll have to deal with politics a little bit later.”

That’s basically the same answer Noem has given for months to this question. It hasn’t changed despite some Noem advisers going further and confirming her interest in the race to the media.

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin will not run for office this year

Former U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin announced this morning that she will not run for office in 2014, as she had considered.

In a post on her Facebook page, the Democrat cited her family and job as reasons for not running.

“While I know you share my confidence that working together we could win a statewide race next year, I’m also confident that the decision not to run is the right decision for Max, Zachary, me and our entire family,” Herseth Sandlin wrote, referring to her husband Max Sandlin and her son Zachary.

She had been widely considered as a possible candidate for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Sen. Tim Johnson.

Rick Weiland, a former aide to Sen. Tom Daschle, is the only Democratic candidate in the race so far. Former Gov. Mike Rounds is the only Republican running.

Stay with Argus Leader Media for more developments in this story.

And so it begins…

Mike Rounds’ honeymoon is over.

He’s known all along that running for Senate will mean facing criticism for some of the things he did — and defended — as governor. One of Rounds’ weaknesses is open government, something he’s always been leery about.

This morning, the conservative news site The Daily Caller reported on Rounds denying their a Democratic group’s records request for some of the former governor’s personal correspondence.

After Rounds denied their request for information about the governor’s mansion construction, the Capitol renovation, the Homestake lab, inmate files and other governor’s office reports, Daily Caller reporter Alexis Levinson summarized the state of South Dakota’s open records laws, and the role Rounds played in keeping them from being more open.

The Argus Leader has covered these issues extensively over the years — Levinson’s article relies heavily on past Argus Leader reporting for her context.

But this issue illustrates the different world a U.S. Senate campaign is compared to a gubernatorial campaign. South Dakotans may not have cared very much when the Argus Leader reported on how limited our state’s open records laws are. But nationally, most states and the federal government make FAR more information available to the public than does South Dakota. The law letting Mike Rounds keep his official correspondence private may seem normal to some South Dakotans, but to outsiders it looks like he’s being secretive and hiding things.

Even under Gov. Dennis Daugaard, Rounds’ successor (and ally) who is much more favorable to open government, it’s been a very slow slog expanding open government laws in South Dakota. A commission convened by Daugaard and Attorney General Marty Jackley proposed eight new laws last year. Half of them — including some of the most significant, such as a bill opening up police mug shots to the public as they are in almost every other state — were defeated in the Legislature despite backing from Daugaard and Jackley.

So welcome to South Dakota, national reporters. It’s a whole new world here.

(Note: I misread the original Daily Caller article about who filed the open records request Rounds rejected — it was a Democratic group, not the Daily Caller. Fixed — though it’s worth noting that the point of open records laws is that anyone can use them, from the press to your bitterest enemies. The information is free regardless of what purposes people intend it for.)

Does Weiland make Noem more likely to run?

Rep. Kristi Noem has refused to rule out a run for U.S. Senate against Mike Rounds. Her decision here will have a big impact on the race, as the biggest Republican name out there who could challenge Rounds in the primary.

I think her chances of running this morning are considerably higher than they were 24 hours ago.

Why? It has to do with what I think are two of Noem’s key goals here:

1) She would like to be a U.S. Senator

2) She would like for the GOP to take South Dakota’s U.S. Senate seat

The problem is that with Mike Rounds already in the race, the two goals conflict somewhat — a bruising GOP primary could make it more difficult for whichever Republican wins to triumph in the general election.

But Rick Weiland’s candidacy eases that devil’s calculus a little bit.

That’s presuming you consider Weiland to be a less formidable general election candidate than either Brendan Johnson or Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. This point could be debated, but I’d bet Republicans agree with NBC News that whatever Weiland’s potential, he’s “not a top-tier candidate” compared to Herseth Sandlin and Johnson.

Weiland running for Senate means Republicans now face two dominant possibilities in terms of their Democratic opponent:

1) The Democrats nominate Weiland, seen as less formidable than Herseth Sandlin or Johnson

2) The Democrats nominate Herseth Sandlin, but only after she beats Weiland in a fierce primary

Either case would seem to strengthen the GOP hand over an alternative in which either Herseth Sandlin or Johnson cruises to an uncontested nomination.

And a strengthened GOP hand gives the party more margin for error. In other words, it makes the party better able to absorb a fierce primary of its own.

So if Kristi Noem is being held back from a Senate run by appeals to party loyalty, Weiland’s candidacy would ameliorate some of those concerns.

That leaves the primary obstacle being the personal uncertainty — giving up her current job, where she’s the incumbent and presumably has a better chance of winning than an open Senate seat primary battle against a popular former governor.

Noem’s still no lock to run for office. But whatever Stephanie Herseth Sandlin does, Rick Weiland has made Noem’s choice a little easier.

Brendan Johnson backers say he won’t run, praise Weiland (Updated)

Rick Weiland said one reason he was running for Senate was because he was had spoken with U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson — and come away convinced Tim Johnson’s son wouldn’t run for Senate, as he had been widely rumored to be considering.

“Brendan and I have had some pretty serious conversations about this,” Weiland told us. “He’s focused on his job. I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t feel that Brendan (wasn’t) going to get into this race.”

Meanwhile Ryan Casey, the public face of the “Draft Brendan Johnson for U.S. Senate” campaign, said something very similar.

I actually spoke with Brendan yesterday,” Casey said. “He informed me that he was going to continue to focus on his responsibilities as U.S. Attorney. I’m pretty certain at this point that Brendan won’t enter the race for U.S. Senate.”

He then tweeted out praise for Rick Weiland: 

Casey also sent out an email blast to the “Draft Brendan” email list, urging former Brendan Johnson supporters to support Weiland instead.

And this from Mike Chapman, a former Tim Johnson aide:

Chapman currently heads Heartland America, a Super PAC that a had been one of the prime suspects for what Tim Johnson will do with his $1.2 million war chest — as a Super PAC, it can accept unlimited donations from federal candidates.

And Chapman had certainly shown extreme interest in the South Dakota Senate race. On Twitter, he’s promoted Brendan Johnson’s possible Senate candidacy extensively — and retweeted all sorts of stories critical of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.

Now he and Casey are promoting Rick Weiland as a “great candidate for U.S. Senate”? It’s unclear exactly how close their ties are to the Johnson camp, but one interpretation is that Brendan Johnson won’t be running and that his allies are backing Weiland — who already has support from Tom Daschle.

Also worth remembering: one of the Democrats the “Draft Brendan” movement had announced as a backer was Kevin Weiland — Rick’s brother.

If Herseth Sandlin runs as well we could be in for a doozy of a Democratic primary — exactly what Democrats had hoped to avoid, even if Weiland-Herseth Sandlin wouldn’t be quite as big as a Brendan Johnson-Herseth Sandlin matchup.

First Dem to run for SD Senate is… Rick Weiland?

Jonathan Ellis and I just broke the news that Rick Weiland, the former Tom Daschle aide who ran for U.S. House in 1996 and 2002, has announced he’s running for U.S. Senate.

Weiland is the first Democrat to enter the race, and is a bit of a surprise. Speculation until now had centered on Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Brendan Johnson.

The jury’s still out on what Herseth Sandlin will do. But Weiland said he’d spoken with Brendan Johnson lately and was convinced Johnson wouldn’t run. Had Johnson run, Weiland said he’d have backed the U.S. Attorney.

If Herseth Sandlin does run, it won’t be the first time she’s faced off against Weiland. It won’t even be the second time she’s butted heads with a Weiland.

In 2002, Weiland came in a distant second place in the Democratic primary to the woman then known as Stephanie Herseth.

Then in 2010, Weiland’s brother Kevin announced a last-minute challenge to Herseth Sandlin after she voted against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act — only to back down after pressure from national Democrats and Herseth Sandlin’s promise that she opposed repealing the health care reform law.

While national Democrats will probably try to get Rick Weiland to pull out, don’t look for a repeat. While Kevin Weiland’s candidacy was fueled by grassroots anger, Rick also has some big-name backers — including Daschle, who he said was supportive of his plans.

More to come tomorrow and in days to come.

If you have questions, be sure to visit argusleader.com at 3 p.m. tomorrow for a special edition of our live Internet talk show, “100 Eyes on South Dakota Politics,” where we’ll be talking about this announcement.

Tea Party Express talking to potential SD Senate candidates

Strategists for the tea party group Tea Party Express spent several days in South Dakota this week interviewing possible Senate candidates as they weigh possible involvement in the Republican primary.

So far Mike Rounds is the only declared candidate, and unlike the Senate Conservatives Fund, the Tea Party Express is considering backing the former governor.

“He’s the front-runner at this point, so he’d be high on our list to talk to,” said Sal Russo, the group’s chief strategist. “We haven’t made any judgments at this point.”

But Russo and his team interviewed several other potential candidates, including state Rep. Stace Nelson, who reported speaking to the group in an in-depth 90-minute discussion.

Russo said his group is solely concerned with fiscal conservatism, not social issues or foreign policy. It’s on fiscal issues where Rounds has drawn most of his criticism from conservative activists.

The group is a political action committee subject to campaign finance limits, so it doesn’t have the potential to make a huge splash like some of the new, post-Citizen United Super PACs and 501(c)4 groups. Russo said it would help arrange bus tours and rallies to boost whichever candidate it supports, and consider making independent expenditures such as TV ads or postcard campaigns.

With multiple outside conservative groups now eyeing South Dakota’s primary, it’s possible that the groups could end up backing different horses. That happened last year in states like Nebraska and Missouri. In the latter state, Tea Party Express backed former treasurer Sarah Steelman over eventual primary winner Todd Akin.

“We thought she was a far superior candidate to Todd Akin,” Russo said. “Few would disagree with us today.”

Russo said that might happen this year, but predicted less infighting among conservative activists than 2012.

“I think generally people are committed to winning the Senate, so I don’t think there’s going to be too much,” said Russo. Compared to some past years, he said, there’s less interest in “impossible-to-win candidates.”

Tea Party Express will return to South Dakota in “the next month or two” for another look at the situation.

Considering candidacy, Herseth Sandlin draws fire from the left

During her years in Congress, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin emphasized her moderation and her leadership in the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats group. It served her well in several elections as she racked up big majorities in a Republican-leaning state.

But as Herseth Sandlin considers a run for the U.S. Senate, her Blue Dog past is causing problems as some Democrats criticize her for being too conservative.

“I’m perplexed as to why she calls herself a Democrat,” said Anna Madsen, a Democratic activist from Sioux Falls. “Her votes reflect something quite the opposite.”

Madsen and others have taken to the Internet to rally progressive Democrats against Herseth Sandlin and to try to find a more liberal alternative — such as U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson, the son of retiring U.S. Sen. Tim Johnson.

Several votes in particular stick in the craw of liberal Democrats. Herseth Sandlin voted against the Affordable Care Act in 2009, though she later also opposed repealing that health care reform law championed by most Democrats. In 2004, she voted in favor of a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

“On a number of very important issues over the several years she was in Congress, she failed the test of being a strong Democrat and representing the core Democratic values we value the most,” said Ryan Casey, a leader in a movement publicly urging Brendan Johnson to run for the office.

That’s not how Herseth Sandlin’s supporters see it.

“There’s no doubt that Stephanie is a Democrat,” said Clint Sargent, a Sioux Falls attorney who has backed Herseth Sandlin since her early campaigns. “Stephanie believes that there are places where government can do great things for our state and our country. That’s the reason I’m a Democrat. That’s the reason why many of our friends are Democrats. We think government can be very, very helpful for people, and it’s not necessarily a bad thing like so many on the other side of the aisle think these days.”

But Sargent and other Herseth Sandlin supporters didn’t try to argue Herseth Sandlin was actually the liberal people like Madsen would prefer.

Jason Frerichs, the Democratic leader in the state senate and a longtime supporter of Herseth Sandlin, said the vote against the Affordable Care Act can be “hard to get over” for many Democrats, but he downplayed it in favor of her other work while in Congress.

“It’s one vote and it’s one issue that we can agree to disagree with the (former) congresswoman,” Frerichs said. “That’s the way the process works. If we’re going to beat someone up over a handful of votes, I think it’s a little bit short-sighted.”

Instead, he said Herseth Sandlin’s work on agriculture and veterans issues made her a strong Democratic congresswoman.

Sargent said he likes that Herseth Sandlin sometimes breaks with the Democratic mainstream.

“What I like about Stephanie is she’s pragmatic. She’s not an ideologue ” he said. “If you look at anybody who fits the definition of a moderate, that means they’re not going to vote the party line every single time.”

Madsen said it’s how often Herseth Sandlin votes against the party line, and the importance of the issues on which she does, that frustrate her.

“There’s a variety of votes she’s made (against proposals) that are foundational, not peripheral, to Democratic core principles,” Madsen said, referring to votes against cap-and-trade and for the Bush tax cuts as well as the gay marriage and Affordable Care Act votes.

Herseth Sandlin declined to comment.

Political scientists say it’s no secret that Herseth Sandlin was conservative — for a Democrat. But her voting record was still very distinct from even the least conservative Republicans in Congress, said Keith Poole, a political scientist at the University of Georgia who co-created the highly regarded DW-NOMINATE system to analyze congressional voting.

“She’s on the conservative side of the Democratic Party. Of course, you have to take ‘conservative’ with a grain of salt,” Poole said. “She is basically on the center-left.”

According to DW-NOMINATE, Herseth Sandlin’s voting record on fiscal and economic issues was more conservative than 80 to 90 percent of all congressional Democrats during her time in the House — but more liberal than every single Republican House member during that same time, putting her near the center of the body.

Historically, Herseth Sandlin voted more conservatively than every single Democrat representing South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana or Wyoming in the House and Senate over the past 40 years, though her scores were close to Democrats such as Tim Johnson, Max Baucus of Montana and Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota. Past South Dakota Democrats Tom Daschle, George McGovern and Jim Abourezk were all considerably more liberal, while the least conservative Republican, Larry Pressler, was significantly more conservative, according to the DW-NOMINATE system.

Emily Wanless, a political science professor at Augustana College, called Herseth Sandlin a “classic case of a Democrat operating in a red state.”

“If you look at the Senate elections of Arkansas right now and Alaska, there are several members of Congress who are dealing with the same thing — they’re never going to able to be as liberal as some Democrats in their states would like them to be, because they’re in the minority,” Wanless said.

Casey acknowledged that Democrats from conservative states have sometimes had to “disassociate themselves from the Democratic Party” in order to survive politically. But he said Herseth Sandlin went beyond what may have been necessary. As an example, Casey pointed to Tim Johnson, who voted for the Affordable Care Act and against the gay marriage ban before coming out in favor of same-sex marriage last month.

“I see a real desire out there from progressive Democrats who want someone who’s not afraid and certainly even proud to be a progressive Democrat,” Casey said.

Ben Nesselhuf, the chairman of the South Dakota Democratic Party, said much of the criticism of Herseth Sandlin is “coming from a group of people that are trying to push another candidate into the race.”

“I think that (liberal) South Dakota Democrats understand that the differences between them and Stephanie are so small compared to the differences between Stephanie and the Republican nominee, whoever that’s going to be,” Nesselhuf said.

Despite her criticism of Herseth Sandlin, Madsen said she would support her if she ended up as the party’s nominee — if reluctantly, and while keeping pressure on Herseth Sandlin to “be a Democrat.” But Madsen, skeptical about whether nominating moderates is really the best way to win, said a candidate who unequivocally endorsed Democratic principles might be better for the party in the long term.

“I wonder if it wouldn’t be worth it to throw all of our efforts to an election, and possibly losing it, just so we could reclaim our identity,” Madsen said.

Republicans ‘seeing a chance for mischief’ with SD Dem divide (updated)

There’s a real, if possibly overstated, divide among the South Dakota Democratic Party base, between liberals who want Brendan Johnson to run for Senate against an allegedly too conservative Herseth Sandlin, and moderates who see Herseth Sandlin as the party’s best chance to retain Tim Johnson’s Senate seat.

In the latter camp, controversially, are national Democrats with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Of course, one rule of politics and physics is that for every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction, and so the National Republican Senatorial Committee has also weighed in.

Buzzfeed reports on how national Republicans are hoping to “fuel the war between the party and its progressive base.”

“If Democrats in Washington want to pin their hopes on a pro-Bush lobbyist who’s already lost two two midterm elections, they can explain that decision to progressives. Considering the DSCC’s public push for gay marriage, it is a bit surprising,” NRSC spokesman Brad Dayspring said. “Regardless, we’ll soon find out whether Chuck Schumer get to pick the candidate in the Mount Rushmore State or South Dakotans do.”

Read it here.

The NRSC has even put together a web video to make their point about DSCC intervention:

UPDATE: DSCC press secretary Justin Barasky emails a response:

National Republicans should focus more on recruiting candidates and raising money than political gimmicks which conveniently ignore the fact that conservative groups are promising a bruising primary for the GOP nomination in South Dakota — a problem Republicans are facing in numerous states up and down the map.

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