Political Smokeout

Someone mailed tea bags to Johnson, Thune

There was some tumult in Aberdeen today, as the local offices of South Dakota’s congressional delegation all received suspicious packages.

Hazmat teams were called in as the buildings were evacuated.

Late this afternoon, word came that at least two of those suspicious packages contained not ricin or anthrax but tea bags — a harmless, if politically symbolic item.

Read the full story here. It’s unclear who sent the packages, and indeed if we’ll ever know — the investigation could stop here or continue.

Letterman hits Thune over gun control

Late night comedian David Letterman has been running a segment criticizing the senators who voted against recent gun control legislation, each night naming a different one “Stooge of the Night.”

On Monday, it was Sen. John Thune’s turn to be the “Stooge.”

The sketches all seem to be the same general theme:

For “Stooge of the Night,” the senator’s official head shot and Twitter feed fills the screen for at least a full minute, an agonizingly long interval during which Letterman offers a few tame riffs (“[Iowa senator Chuck Grassley] enjoys ceramics, big band music, and his ‘A’ rating from the NRA”), but is also content to let the audience sit in awkward silence. (“Let’s just leave that up there a little longer,” Letterman says of the photo of Sen. Jim Inhofe’s rictus, as the audience titters nervously.)

That was the case with the Thune bit. I can’t figure out how to embed just the segment, but if you go to the whole episode page here and click just past the first commercial break, you’ll get to it.

Here’s a partial transcript:

LETTERMAN: South Dakota Sen. John Thuuuuuune, everybody. This man voted no on gun reform legislation despite the fact that 79 percent — 79 percent, more than three quarters of voters in his state — wanted background checks for gun buyers. Sen. Thuuuune said, ‘Eh, I don’t think so.’ Sen. Thune has an A+ rating for the NRA, which is given to those who are regularly seen in public wearing a coonskin cap.

…

Let’s really get to know him, leave him up there a little longer.

John Thuuune, ladies and gentleman. Once accidentally shot himself in the foot cleaning his teeth. What! Is that possible?

There he is. 79 percent said, no, we’d like background checks. Sen. John Thune said ‘Ohoho, it’s not gonna happen.’ Then he got on his tricycle and rode off.

We’re killing valuable network time at the senator’s expense now.

I am not sure where exactly that polling number about South Dakotans and background checks came from. I’ve seen national polling to that effect (though recent polls have shown a decline in support for gun control since the pre-vote polling showing huge majorities), but I hadn’t seen any South Dakota specific polling. I’m not sure if Letterman was referring to something in particular or if he was misconstruing a poll.

Tim Johnson’s war chest: $1.275M

When I initially reported on campaign fundraising a few weeks ago, finance reports for Sens. Tim Johnson and John Thune were not available, due to some antiquated Senate rules that involve senators filing their reports on paper.

Now, finally, those reports are online.

Johnson’s fundraising report doesn’t materially change my initial reporting about how much money the retiring Democrat has remaining. At the time, he had $1.235 million in the bank. In the first quarter of the year, Johnson raised $95,000 and spent $55,000; he now has $1.275 million.

The $95,000 Johnson raised was the lowest of the four fundraising South Dakota politicians — the three members of Congress and Mike Rounds. It was also Johnson’s lowest quarter since early 2011, when he took in just $22,000. But that’s not surprising — Johnson’s chief of staff told me the senator stopped raising money after his retirement announcement.

Thune, meanwhile, led the pack with a comfortable $292,000 — ahead of Noem’s $269,000 and Rounds’ $183,000.

In fact, John Thune has so much money in the bank — $8.5 million — that he made a cool $60,000 from interest alone this quarter. By way of comparison, in six separate quarters since his reelection in 2008, Johnson raised less than $60,000 combined.

Here’s an updated spreadsheet of South Dakota’s federal campaign finance history.

Noem, Rounds speak back to back but avoid 2014 news

Two potential rivals for the South Dakota Senate spoke back-to-back Friday night at the Minnehaha County Republican dinner, but stayed away from primary politics.

Former Gov. Mike Rounds, a Senate candidate, focused his brief speech on attacking federal disfunction.

“Year in and year out, from statehood, we balance our budget,” Rounds said. “How about the Feds? Sorry, the Senate doesn’t even pass a budget the last four years… Wouldn’t a little bit of South Dakota common sense go a long way in our nation’s capital?”

Meanwhile U.S. Rep Kristi Noem, who has refused to rule also running for the Senate, didn’t mention that race at all in her remarks. She also concentrated on criticizing national Democrats and discussing congressional battles.

“The House passed two bills to replace that sequester,” Noem said, referring to the automatic spending cuts that went into effect a month and a half ago. “While the president stands on TV and talks about the devastation of the sequester… what we need to understand is, the president never once put a proposal on the table to avoid that sequester.”

The two spoke back-to-back at the Minnehaha County Republican Party’s annual Lincoln Day Dinner, held at the Sioux Falls Convention Center.

Also speaking were Sen. John Thune, South Dakota Republican Party chairman Craig Lawrence, and Republican National Committee co-chair Sharon Day.

Thune, who has said he plans to stay neutral in any possible GOP Senate primary here, had kind words for Rounds but stopped short of endorsing him.

“I’ve known Mike and worked with Mike for over 20 years. He would be a great addition to the United States Senate,” Thune said, before praising Noem in the next breath as a “strong voice” who “votes the right way, and you don’t have to worry about what she’s going to do.”

Lawrence, in the evening’s longest speech, closed by urging Republicans to not waste energy on infighting.

“We must stop shooting at each other,” Lawrence said. “We are often divided by ourselves, giving one another conservative litmus tests.”

Thune doesn’t expect to endorse in GOP Senate primary

Sen. John Thune said he is “unlikely” to endorse in a potential Republican primary for U.S. Senate next year.

Former Gov. Mike Rounds is the only declared Republican candidate for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Tim Johnson, but others have expressed interest in running or refused to rule it out, including Rep. Kristi Noem.

Thune didn’t make any definitive statements but said Thursday he’ll probably stay out of any primary that develops.

“People have a right if they want to run to run,” Thune said. “I… don’t intend to be involved in the primary if there is one.”

But he did criticize “outside entities… that try to inject themselves” into Senate races. One such group, the Senate Conservatives Fund, has called for a “conservative alternative” to Rounds.

And Thune, who ran fierce Senate races in 2002 and 2004, said it’s “good to not be on the ballot” during what’s shaping up to be a high-profile Senate race that could “shatter a lot of records” if both parties get top-tier candidates.

Thune, Johnson & voting buddies in the Senate

Some fascinating analysis by Yahoo! News’ Chris Wilson, breaking down the voting patterns of the U.S. Senate.

Specifically, Wilson looks at how often each member of the Senate votes with other members.

Sen. John Thune, for example, has voted with 35 of 44 fellow Republicans at least 75 percent of the time in the (short, so far) 2013-2014 session. Sen. Tim Johnson has voted with 52 of 54 Democrats at least 75 percent of the time.

You can play with the widget here (unfortunately, it’s too big to embed on this blog).

The striking feature of the research, which goes back to 2001, is that minority parties tend to be more fractious. That’s because the majority party in the Senate can control what bills get brought up for votes, and avoid the ones that might divide the caucus:

You may also notice that voting discipline seems to be function of who’s in charge, not an intrinsic value of liberalism. (Anyone who has seen Democratic politics from the inside knows this in their bones.) If you select the Republican-controlled 108th Congress, you can see a similar effect in reverse. At a 75 percent threshold, there is not a single connection between the clusters. As you drag the slider to the right, you see the blue dots scatter much faster than the red dots.

Alexander Furnas, a political scientist and fellow at the Sunlight Foundation who examined this data for me, suggests this is because of the control the majority party holds over what comes to a vote.

“The majority is unlikely to bring things to vote unless they can garner 60 votes to be filibuster proof. Given that usually the majority does not have a filibuster-proof supermajority, that means that they are bringing things to vote that they know can peel off a few votes from the minority,” he said. “It is likely that that process contributes to the lower voting cohesion in the minority party.”

Here’s the results for South Dakota’s senators dating back to 2001. All results are in terms of the number of other Democrats or Republicans they voted with at least 75 percent of the time. (Numbers won’t match because senators count as a member of their party — so in 2013 Johnson is compared to 54 other Democrats, while Thune is compared to all 55 Democrats, including Johnson.) Johnson is all zeroes in 2007-2008 because of all the votes he missed while out with medical issues. You’ll notice that in all that time, none of South Dakota’s senators have ever voted 75 percent of the time with a member of the opposite party:

Sen. Tim Johnson

• 2013-2014: 52/54 Democrats, 0/45 Republicans
• 2011-2012: 53/53 Democrats, 0/48 Republicans
• 2009-2010: 59/63 Democrats, 0/43 Republicans
• 2007-2008: 0/51 Democrats, 0/50 Republicans
• 2005-2006: 40/46 Democrats, 0/54 Republicans
• 2003-2004: 40/49 Democrats, 0/50 Republicans
• 2001-2002: 48/52 Democrats, 0/48 Republicans

Sen. John Thune

• 2013-2014: 0/55 Democrats, 35/44 Republicans
• 2011-2012: 0/52 Democrats, 35/47 Republicans
• 2009-2010: 0/64 Democrats, 35/42 Republicans
• 2007-2008: 0/52 Democrats, 37/49 Republicans
• 2005-2006: 0/47 Democrats, 48/53 Republicans

Sen. Tom Daschle

• 2003-2004: 41/49 Democrats, 0/50 Republicans
• 2001-2002: 46/52 Democrats, 0/48 Republicans

SD politicians’ March Madness picks

Here’s a confession: college sports have never been my thing. I went to a small, D-III school, as did everyone in my immediate family and much of my extended family. So I’ve got no real loyalties to any university athletics. Generally I prefer to watch pro sports.

So I won’t be filling out a bracket this year. I wouldn’t have much more to go on other than seedings and mascots, and I don’t want to be that guy.

But the people I interview and write about on a daily basis have no such weaknesses. Gov. Dennis Daugaard, Sen. Tim Johnson, Rep. Kristi Noem and Sen. John Thune have all filled out brackets for the men’s basketball tournament, and all agreed to release them so I — and, more importantly, you, the reader — could take a look at them.

Spoiler: They all think the SDSU men are going to do well. Some even think the Jackrabbits are going to do REALLY well.

Not only did all four top leaders pick the Jackrabbits to upset better-seeded Michigan in the Round of 64, but all of them also picked SDSU to win in the Round of 32 over Virginia Commonwealth University.

The four combined to pick three different national champions. No one team was picked by all of them to reach the Final Four.

Below are their brackets — plus a few more bonus brackets.

UPDATE: Drue Aman, an Argus Leader Sports copy editor, was kind enough to send over his analysis of the brackets.

Gov. Dennis Daugaard

Daugaard stuck with the home state team for a few rounds, but even South Dakota’s governor doesn’t think SDSU can beat the number one-seeded Kansas team — Daugaard’s pick to win it all, over Duke.

AMAN: A couple upsets (namely No. 4 St. Louis over No. 1 Louisville, No. 6 Butler over No. 2 Miami) coincide with the theme of parity this college basketball season. Not too outlandish of a bracket, however, as three No. 1 seeds and No. 2 Duke comprise the Final Four. South Dakota State also wins two games in this bracket. Are the mathematical odds due for a No. 13 to reach the Sweet Sixteen? Maybe. It’s happened four times since 1985.

Sen. Tim Johnson

South Dakota’s senior senator, on the other hand, has no problems seeing the boys from Brookings toppling Kansas — or Indiana, or mighty top-seeded Louisville. Johnson’s bracket has SDSU winning it all.

AMAN: This bracket says a couple things: 1) The folks charged with assigning seeds know exactly what they’re doing (Aside from Michigan State, South Dakota State and Minnesota, no upset picks in the bracket); 2) We’ve seen but a small sample of just how good SDSU is. Maybe so, but the Jacks are obvious long-shots. About 300:1 to win their region of the bracket, according to Las Vegas.

Rep. Kristi Noem

If you get a sense of déja vu looking at Noem’s bracket, you’re not alone. Like Daugaard, she has Kansas as the eventual champions, beating SDSU in the regional semifinals. Unlike Daugaard, Noem thinks Louisville will be the runner-up. (Noem, it’s worth noting, is the only SDSU alum of the bunch — Daugaard, Johnson and Thune all went to USD.)

AMAN: New Mexico’s selection as a Final Four team makes sense when considering how rare all four No. 1 seeds play that deep into the tournament (only time: 2009). Four 11 and 12 seeds (Bucknell, Minnesota, Oregon and Belmont) reach the Sweet 16 in this bracket which, though unlikely, more than one traditionally make it that far. South Dakota State beating Michigan and Virginia Commonwealth before falling to Kansas would do untold things for the Jackrabbits’ program, if what Noem predicts comes true.

Sen. John Thune

Hoops-mad Thune went with Noem and Daugaard in seeing the Jackrabbits falling to Kansas. But KU won’t go too much further if Thune’s bracket proves right — they’ll beat Georgetown but then lose to Miami, who will in turn fall to ultimate champion Louisville.

AMAN: Two No.1’s and two No.2’s for a Final Four should augur well for accuracy (it appears Thune began writing Duke to beat Louisville in the Midwest regional final before changing his pick, which in the long history of my bracket-filling days, I can relate to a miserably great deal). Overall, a safe bracket with an agreeable amount of upset picks and the tournament’s top seed (Louisville) winning it all. I believe I saw Thune verbally place SDSU in the Final Four, also?

Not enough for you? Here’s a few other brackets from the people who’ve responded to my requests so far:

First Lady Linda Daugaard

While her husband tempered his Jackrabbit fandom by picking Kansas, First Lady Linda Daugaard sees SDSU going all the way — over Creighton.

State Senate Minority Leader Jason Frerichs

Surprisingly, proud SDSU alum Frerichs has the Jackrabbits exiting earlier in the tournament than any of the statewide leaders. Does that say more about knowledge of basketball or knowledge politics? Frerichs sees SDSU beating Michigan but losing to VCU. Louisville wins it all, over Georgetown.

South Dakota Democratic Party chairman Ben Nesselhuf

Nesselhuf also sees SDSU losing in the Round of 32 to VCU. (I’d say it was something in the Democratic water, but Tim Johnson had the Jackrabbits going all the way.) He’s another Louisville pick, over Kansas.

Argus Leader managing editor Patrick Lalley

Can you tell which one of these amateur bracketologists isn’t a politician? Maybe the man who picks a quick exit for the Jackrabbits in their first game. My boss Patrick Lalley sees Michigan beating SDSU and VCU, only to lose to Kansas. He also tabs Louisville for champs, over Indiana.

I’ve asked a few more South Dakota politicians for their brackets; if they come in, I’ll add them to the list.

Thune’s Sioux Falls town hall scheduled

Sen. John Thune’s Sioux Falls town hall meeting will be Wednesday at 10 a.m. at the Holiday Inn City Centre’s Falls West room.

Check argusleader.com for coverage of the event.