Political Smokeout

And Fiegen’s second ad: A second positive spot from Fiegen, trumpeting her fighting spirit.

Transcript:

Kristie Fiegen: I’m Public Utilities Commissioner Kristie Fiegen. I’m also a wife and a mom who knows what it’s like to pay bills each month. That’s why I’m fighting Obama’s EPA mandates that drive up utility costs for everyone. And I’m fighting for the future of our state, for renewable energy and expanded cell phone and broadband coverage. South Dakota families like yours need a proven fighter. I’m Kristie Fiegen, and I’m asking for your vote Nov. 6.

McGovern’s anti-Fiegen ad: Sorry I’m a little behind on this race. Here’s an ad by Matt McGovern attacking his general election opponent, Kristie Fiegen, for being too cozy with McGovern’s bête noire, Xcel Energy.

Transcript:

Narrator: Politician Kristie Fiegen is a former board member at Xcel Energy, a company whose CEO travels in a private jet and made $11 million last year — paid for by your electric bills. Now Xcel wants a whole new 11.5 percent rate hike, and who do they have to go through to get it? Kristie Fiegen, our Public Utilities Commissioner, their former board member. That’s gotta stop. It’s time to vote no to Kristie Fiegen.

Varilek’s closer (updated): At last night’s debate on KELO-TV, Matt Varilek seemed to catch Rep. Kristi Noem off-guard with an offer to pull all his negative ads if Noem did the same.

Noem replied that she’d think about it. (This answer wasn’t too surprising — campaigns rarely set major strategy in response to debate questions from your opponent.)

Early this afternoon, Varilek called me to say that his campaign is “unilaterally going positive-only” despite no response from Noem’s campaign on the positive-ad pledge offer.

He said — and I cannot confirm this — that he’s pulling all his other ads and running just the new ad embedded above for the final few days before the election.

Closing positively after weeks or months of negative ads is a time-honored tactic, a sort of palate-cleanser right before voters head to the polls. So don’t necessarily view this as some sort of huge sacrifice on Varilek’s part.

Will this strategy work?

UPDATE: Noem’s campaign manager Tom Erickson says the Noem campaign won’t be changing its ad strategy in the final days. He said they’re running two ads down the home stretch: the positive testimonial ad, and the negative (my words) ad criticizing Varilek.

Erickson dismissed Varilek’s pledge offer and his switch to positive ads.

“South Dakota voters must be rejecting his campaign if he’s electing to pull a stunt like this,” Erickson said. “Suddenly on the Friday before the election he decides he wants to take down all negative ads? This is nothing but a last-minute stunt.”

(Refreshingly, Varilek also admitted that his campaign HAS run negative ads when I pressed him about his criticism of Noem’s claim that she isn’t running any. Both campaigns this election have run negative ads, though they usually make semantic quibbles to avoid admitting it.)

I’ll also note that if this is truly Varilek’s final ad, that makes it official that he’s gone the entire campaign without featuring any ordinary voters in his ads, which is a curious (but probably cost-saving) strategic choice.

Here’s the transcript of Varilek’s final ad, which echoes his closing statement at last night’s debate:

Matt Varilek: I’m Matt Varilek, and I’ve had a lot of people ask me why I’m working so hard to voluntarily join that mess in Congress. It’s a funny question with a serious answer. 

I’m running for Congress because I believe that we can still do better. I believe we can tackle our challenges, but only if we elect new leaders- leaders who show up, work hard every day, and work together to get results for middle-class families. 

I’m Matt Varilek, and I approve this message.

Noem’s closer: It looks like Kristi Noem’s closing message of the campaign will be a harsh one. She’s released this above ad, responding to Varilek’s attacks, and criticizing him for a “desperate campaign” and for ties to national Democrats.

I’ve covered the $800 billion Medicare-Obama thing ad nauseum. Read my analysis of that claim here, starting on the bottom of page 3. Or check out PolitiFact’s analysis of that claim. Her claim about taxes in the Affordable Care Act is broadly accurate, the law does raise taxes.

As for the “national energy tax,” Varilek says he doesn’t support it. The Noem people say he’s lying.

Here’s a transcript:

Kristi Noem: I’m Kristi Noem, and I approved this message.

Narrator: Lies and distortions. That sums up Matt Varilek’s desperate campaign. Kristi works for South Dakota. Over 800 constituent meetings, a 99 percent voting record. Matt Varilek embraces the liberal Obama-Pelosi agenda, cutting billions from Medicare to pay for Obamacare, raising taxes on small businesses and middle class families. A national energy tax costing families $1,700 more per year. Matt Varilek: on issues that matter, he’s with them.

SDGOP hits McGovern on name change: This new ad, first picked up by SDWC, from the South Dakota Republican Party criticizes Matt McGovern on the issue that seems to bug Republicans about him more than anything else — his decision to change his name from Matt McGovern-Rowen to Matt McGovern. (This change happened in 2007, not quite “just before he filed to run for Public Utilities Commission,” as the GOP’s video description says.)

A point of clarification: It’s a matter of fact that McGovern changed his name. What is matter of speculation is WHY he changed his name. To some people, it seems obvious that he changed his name because of political ambition. Other people, including McGovern himself, point to to other reasons. It’s really impossible to know for sure.

The video also criticizes McGovern for his work lobbying for a cap-and-trade bill. There’s no real ambiguity here. McGovern did support a cap-and-trade program, and did so enthusiastically and explicitly. This is in contrast to another Democratic Matt who has been accused of supporting cap-and-trade, but who chiefly analyzed (sometimes favorably, which can be damning enough if you fiercely oppose cap-and-trade) cap-and-trade systems instead of lobbying and advocating for them.

Here’s the transcript of the ad:

Narrator: Who is Matt McGovern? Well, his real name was Matt Rowan. He was born in Wisconsin, moved here in 2004, worked for Obama and Gore’s radical energy policies, which would cost South Dakota families over $2,000 a year — an expense he said was “minimal.” He wasn’t born here, hasn’t lived here, changed his last name just to run for the PUC, and now he wants to be in charge of your utility bills. South Dakota can’t afford to be fooled by Matt McGovern.

UPDATE: The South Dakota Republican Party sends out a press release noting a factual error — one they don’t seem too upset about having to correct:

The South Dakota Republican Party is currently running an ad that states Matt McGovern was born is Wisconsin. In fact, he was born in Washington, DC. 

The McGovern campaign has requested that this be changed - this will be done as soon as possible. ;-)

That is a verbatim copy-and-paste. No comment on the emoticon.

Varilek hits Noem on alleged access selling: Screenshots from the Argus Leader feature prominently in this latest Matt Varilek ad, another low-cost production featuring narration over computer animation. This may end up being problematic (and way over my head); more on this, possibly, later.

Here’s the transcript:

Narrator: What the heck is the Gula Graham Group? It’s Kristi Noem’s campaign firm, caught offering 1-on-1 coffees in return for campaign money. Selling meetings with fat cats, but she’s too busy to show up at the ag committee. 

Do you know really pays when Noem sells out to special interests? We do. Sixty-four hundred more in Medicare costs, higher taxes on the middle class, and still, no farm bill. Haven’t we paid enough already? 

Matt Varilek: I’m Matt Varilek, and I approve this message.

Chris Nelson for PUC ad: Pat Powers flags down a TV commercial Chris Nelson is running. I still haven’t seen any ads from Nelson’s opponent, Nick Nemec.

Transcript:

Narrator: Chris Nelson: a proven leader for South Dakota. As Public Utilities Commissioner, Chris Nelson has been working to keep your electric, telephone and natural gas rates low, and to ensure you have reliable services. When EPA regulations and FCC rules from Washington threaten your utility rates and service, Chris Nelson is working for you. Keep a voice you can trust on the Public Utilities Commission. Keep Chris Nelson working for South Dakota.