Among the fascinating things you can find by digging in (and keep in mind that some of these questions have fairly large margins of error):
- Mike Rounds leads Kristi Noem 43-39 among all Republican primary voters. But he’s up 60-14 among the 9 percent of South Dakota Republicans who voted for Obama. Among Romney-voting Republicans, it’s just 43-42 Rounds.
- There’s no big gender gap in a Noem-Rounds primary matchup — Rounds leads 41-36 among women, 45-42 among men — though more women are undecided.
- Conventional wisdom is Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has a problem with her base as a result of votes against liberal priorities like the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. This poll, at least, doesn’t show that. Among Democrats, Tim Johnson’s approval rating is 77-17, while Democrats approve of Herseth Sandlin 82-13. The two are basically identical among approval by people who voted for Obama in 2012 — 85-11 for Tim Johnson, 86-10 for Herseth Sandlin.
- 21 percent of South Dakota Democrats disapprove of Barack Obama. 11 percent of South Dakota Republicans approve of the president.
- Obama’s approval among white South Dakotans is 37 percent. Among non-white South Dakotans (7 percent of the sample), it’s 58 percent.
- This is probably insignificant because we’re talking about the preferences of about 20 to 25 people here in the polling sample, but among non-white Republicans, Noem has a huge 61-8 lead over Rounds in a potential primary.
- No surprise that Obama’s approval rating is highest among young South Dakotans, aged 18-29 — 50 percent approve of the president, versus 45 percent who disapprove. Less predictable? Obama’s second-best age category are people over 65, where 42 percent approve and 52 percent don’t. The most anti-Obama age group are people aged 30 to 45, among whom just 28 percent approve and 66 percent disapprove.
- In light of those numbers, I looked at the Rounds-Noem primary matchup by age. Rounds beats Noem among 18 to 29-year-old Republicans (44-39) and Republicans 65 and older (43-38), but is tied among those 30-45.
- Unfortunately for my curiosity, PPP didn’t poll about how Herseth Sandlin would fare in a primary challenge to Tim Johnson. That is very unlikely to happen, but wouldn’t the poll result be fascinating?
Again, you can view these crosstabs yourself here.